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地點： 蘇州市
開展時間： 2025-04-16
舉辦單位： 上海有色網
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地點： 上海市
開展時間： 2025-04-21
舉辦單位： 上海荷瑞展覽有限公司
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地點： 成都市
開展時間： 2025-04-23
舉辦單位： 漢諾威米蘭展覽（上海）有限公司、東浩蘭生會展集團上海工業商務展覽有限公司、四川天府國際會展集團有限公
3月份農機市場景氣指數出爐，上半年市場走勢或出現拐點
2025-04-08
10:23:16
來源：中國農機流通協會 閱讀量：7555
評論
中國農業機械流通協會發布的2025年3月份中國農機市場景氣指數(AMI)為61.7%，環比提升2.6個百分點，同比提升3.2個百分點。從環比看，6個一級指數中除經理人信心指數外全部呈上升趨勢。其中，效益指數漲幅最大，環比提升7.3個百分點；從同比看，6個一級指數中除效益指數外全部呈上升趨勢，其中經理人信心指數增幅最大，為7.2個百分點。本月6個一級指數全部停留在景氣區間。
中國農機流通協會信息咨詢部主任張文博認為：正如我們上個月的預測，3月份，AMI環比、同比實現雙增，分別提升2.6和3.2個百分點。3月份正值農機市場的傳統旺季，上個月經理人信心指數的大漲，二因素疊加，對本月均有提示。本月市場雖然總體上漲，但漲幅大幅度收窄15個百分點，而且經理人信心指數環比也有所下滑，預示今年上半年市場走勢可能出現拐點。
3月份，AMI表現出以下幾個突出特征。其一，經營效益兩連增，持續高位。其二，客流量爆棚，人氣創三年新高。其三，多數細分市場環比提升，同比下滑。所監測的10個三級指數中，除
玉米收獲機仍停留在不景氣區間外，大中拖、
旋耕機、
免耕播種機、深松機、插秧機、遙控飛行噴霧機、自走輪式谷物聯合收割機、自走履帶式谷物聯合收割機(全喂入)9個三級指數全部挺進景氣區間。
從宏觀環境分析，3月28日，國務院總理李強主持召開國務院常務會議，會議研究了推動農機裝備高質量發展的有關措施。中共中央辦公廳、國務院辦公廳近日印發的《逐步把永久基本農田建成高標準農田實施方案》，建設內容將直接推動農機裝備在農田作業中的廣泛應用，提升機械化耕作便捷水平，從而為農機裝備行業帶來新的市場需求。另外，農業農村部召開的全國糧油作物大面積單產提升工作推進視頻會強調，要實現高位再增產，必須主攻大面積提高單產，而良田良種良機良法的深度融合是實現這一目標的關鍵，農機裝備將作為重要的生產工具，為糧油作物大面積單產提升提供有力支撐。從內生動力分析，季節因素依然是主導AMI的關鍵因素。作為先行指數的經理人信心指數雖然出現較大滑坡，但依然位于較高的景氣區間，意味著4月份的市場依然值得期待。
自2014年至2024年10年間AMI的表現顯示，4月份景氣度高于3月的概率為零。基于此，預計4月份AMI環比下滑，仍停留在景氣區間，但景氣度下滑。一、二、三級指數則會出現冷熱不均的現象。
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